Arrowhead Real Estate Market Analysis

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ARROWHEAD TRENDS SPRING 2012 A market analysis of Arrowhead Woods, a premier resort community
Call or email with you thoughts, questions or suggestions

5 DIY Projects to Increase your home sales value by More than $10,000.

Sweet Spots in a changing market

MONDAY ON THE MOUNTAIN inside Arrowhead Woods

by Bob Bailey 800-987-9320 May 21, 2012

52% of the sales are under $300,000. 28% of sold homes are $300,000 to $500,000; a Sweet Spot of opportunity with a nice balance of listings and sales. A sale at $500,000 with 20% down fits the top limit --$417,000-- of a conforming loan - with rates now below 4%.

Foreclosure sales are down, only 11 homes for sales now. Short sales are up, 17 for sale now, but a distinct advantage since the average short sale closes at 10% to 15% below non-distressed home sales. Banks prefer short sales - if they can figure out how to do them in a sensible time.

PRICE BRACKET $100-199 $200-299 $300-399 $409-499 $500-599 $600-699 $700-799 $800-899 $900-999 $1mil + $2mil + $3mil + Total

LISTED 11 62 52 51 30 10 11 9 9 23 13 10 291

SOLD -12 mo. 81 103 56 42 15 10 6 8 2 12 12 5 352

Days to Sell 163 180 217 143 132 334 326 391 445 338 371 354 271

Sweet Spots /\ /\ /\ /\ /\

Homes for sale below $200,000 should decline as Banks seize the opportunity to raise prices with declining inventory and sellers hold firm. This has already begun in Orange County. The net effect is to create a new, higher bottom. The days to sell should decline too as purchases increase. Over $1,000,000 is in good shape without excessive inventory, historically an early recovery segment.

FREE: 2012 Expert Broker Price Opinion (BPO) of your home or the home of your dreams. Don't buy or sell without one.

Questions, call Bob 800-987-9320

MONDAY ON THE MOUNTAIN inside Arrowhead Woods May 14, 2012

SIGNS OF A BOTTOM. HIGH END VACATION HOME MARKETS, NAPA $1.5mil, CAPE COD $2.4mil, SCOTTSDALE $1.5, SANTA BARBARA $8.45, LONG ISLAND NY $2.5, ST SIMONS ISLAND GA, $2.1 and a bunch more of the big Vacation Home resorts are showing signs of life. Across the second home spectrum resort communities have been punished with price declines near 50% - - 35% in Arrowhead Woods. Economists say "real estate conditions are not getting worse". Does that mean better? No, just the see-saw of sales and prices hitting a rough bottom.

Falling prices driven by foreclosures and short sales have created a new market in Arrowhead Woods - under $200,000

In the first half of 2011, sales under $200,000 were 16% of total sales.
The second half of 2011 the share rose to 23%. In 2012 to date,
Sales in 2012 under $200,000 have risen to 27% of all sales.
The next 3-4 years will continue to have bank and short sales, mostly under $200,000.
We have a bottom for Non-distressed / Equity home sales, stabilizing at $300,000 median.

ARROWHEAD WOODS LAGS 6 -12 MONTHS BEHIND THE LARGEST MARKETS is our experience of the past 30 years. A second measure of a recovering market is mortgage interest rates, now at 4% and less. A recovering market will increase interest rates which in turn will hurt sales, so it will be a delicate balance as we seek a sustaining recovery.

HANG IN. An advantage to sellers is record low interest rates which is drawing buyers. The question is will buyers keep coming when the rates start rising? The rebound in confidence continued in May according to the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, as the index rose to its highest level in over four years. At this point, receding gas prices are outweighing concerns of an apparent slowing in the labor market recovery.

MONDAY ON THE MOUNTAIN. Arrowhead Woods sale up, prices slide… May 7, 2012

Buyers are focusing on homes below $400,000 comprising 73% of April and year to date sales. Buyers rush to the mountain as listings below $200,000 come on the market. There are only 10 available today for example.

43% of home listings are below $400,000 in a market that would be much better off with 400 plus homes for sale rather than 274 listings. Apparently a lack of consumer confidence can deter home owners from listing as well as home shoppers from buying. So Bank and Short Sales distort the pricing structure.

April had 23 sales in Arrowhead Woods and a one month median of $254,000. Arrowhead Woods sales are up 18% over last year, but prices have dropped from a 2011 year end median of $300,000 to a 2012 four month median of $267,450, down 11%. Vacation homes, never a necessity, are easy to delay – wait and see. It is noteworthy that short sales are exceeding bank sales this month.

As my Spring Arrowhead Trends 4 page report – in the mail now - will detail, short sales are the wave of the future.

2012 SOLD		to $200k		$200-400		$400-600		$600-$1mil		$1mil+	TOTAL
April		7		10		5		0		1	23
Year to date		28		48		19		6		3	104
Last Yr to date		14		46		17		6		5	88
The entire 2012 increase of 18% year over year was under $200,000
April: Two Bank sales $185k & $191k; 5 Short Sales, $150k, $177k,$250,$254k,$475k.
LISTED	10		109		70		40		45		274

APRIL 2012 23 SALES IN ARROWHEAD WOODS

SoldPrice

Last List

Original

Str No

Str Name

Built

Beds

Baths

View

Garage

Bank

Short

$150,000

$130,000

$130,000

29041

LASSEN

1985

2

2

2

N

Y

165,000

178,400

245,000

457

CIMARRON LN

1968

4

3

TR

None

N

N

177,000

177,000

189,000

348

BRENTWOOD

1971

3

3

FOR

None

N

Y

180,000

180,000

180,000

783

GOLF COURSE

1967

3

2

FOR

None

N

N

185,000

189,900

206,900

1164

GRASS VALLEY

1987

3

2.5

2

Y

N

187,500

209,000

209,000

925

GRASS VALLEY

1969

3

2

MTN

None

N

N

191,000

199,900

199,900

26438

THUNDERBIRD

1984

2

2

CAN

None

Y

N

222,000

225,000

225,000

378

OAK DRIVE

1928

4

1.75

None

N

N

229,000

239,000

278,000

1126

GRASS VALLEY

1980

3

2

MTN

None

N

N

239,750

259,950

339,000

180

GRASS VALLEY

1978

3

2.5

MTN

None

N

N

250,000

270,000

270,000

27582

NORTH BAY

1965

3

2

2

N

Y

254,000

225,000

325,000

463

BEL AIR

1970

4

3

TR

None

N

Y

259,900

259,900

269,900

28695

QUEBEC DRIVE

1977

4

2

TR

2

N

N

275,000

289,500

289,500

289

TERRACE RD.

1961

3

1.75

FOR

None

N

N

285,000

289,000

289,000

403

HELIOTROPE

1936

3

2

LK

1

N

N

299,900

309,000

329,000

234

FLOWER

1922

3

1.5

LK

None

N

N

348,000

349,900

349,900

28527

SHENANDOAH

1978

3

2

2

N

N

420,000

449,000

449,000

275

STATE HWY 173

1922

6

4

LK

2

N

N

475,000

499,900

748,000

28067

WEST SHORE

1992

4

3

FOR

2

N

Y

500,000

529,900

625,000

27335

ELMWOOD DR

1983

4

4.5

TR

2

N

N

507,000

519,000

589,000

478

PYRAMID

2002

5

3.5

MTN

2

N

N

510,000

569,000

569,000

27572

WEST SHORE

1982

3

3

TR

2

N

N

1,515,000

1,695,000

1,795,000

28235

NORTHSHORE

1946

5

5

LK

3

N

N

MONDAY ON THE MOUNTAIN

ARROWHEAD WOODS FOLLOWS NATIONAL UPTIC... April 30, 2012

Closing out April 2012 sales for the first four months in Arrowhead Woods are 22% over last year with 109 sales for the same time. Owners with equity (non-distressed) are selling their homes at near 10% above the bank and short sales. We will close the month of April with about 25 homes sold in Arrowhead Woods. The table of April sales, prices and details will be published next week.

This recently published chart makes the point that the nation -- and Lake Arrowhead -- is bottoming out. Unlike the home and community of your primary residence, Arrowhead Woods has historically lagged behind the primary residence selling market. A vacation home has always been a well thought out decision, no rush, more so since the bubble burst.

A community of less than 8,000 vacation homes in Southern California with 18 million population within 100 miles will always have enough folks in which a second home is a comfortable cost of living for a family that needs love and care and rest and fun and more…

The Journal stated, Housing is getting a lift from reduced supply and stronger demand. Mortgage-interest rates at near-record lows and prices at their 2002 levels have made homes more affordable than at any point in the past decade. The number of homes for sale has fallen over the past year. A top complaint of some real-estate agents today is that there aren't enough homes to show potential buyers.

Same problem here in Arrowhead Woods. We need more listings too!

MONDAY ON THE MOUNTAIN

ARROWHEAD WOODS SALES UP, 85% UNDER $500,000... April 23, 2012

by Bob Bailey 800-987-9320

The first step toward a real estate recovery here in Arrowhead Woods is in home sales under $500,000.

That is where 85% of the action is. Fewest days on the market, fastest turnover. In 2012,

we are only 100 days into the year, have had a relatively mild winter, and this home bracket is doing well.

Unchanged in the last six month sales, two thirds of the homes sold under half a million are non-distressed,

just regular folks. Yes, one third are bank or short sales.

Next week we will look at the spread between the asking prices and the sale prices.

Home sales and Days to a Sale $100,000-$499,999 $500,000-$999,999 $1 million Plus

HOMES SOLD DAYS HOMES SOLD DAYS HOMES SOLD DAYS

2012- 100 days 87 126 12 256 3 447

2011 245 138 45 180 29 176

2010 225 143 54 226 20 240

NOW LISTED 258 166 65 346 47 441

70% of the listings and 85% of the sales. Fast turnover. Selling in 4 months. Unsold less than 6 months. 18% of the listings and 12% of the sales. Almost a year and 65 still for sale. 13% of the listings and 3% of the homes sold. Sharp jump in selling time to 15 months. Over 2 year inventory.

For many of you it may be a while since you had a very accurate current market value of your home. If you need an update, give me a call. This is our expertise. It doesn't take long and a service we have made available to every Arrowhead Woods homeowner for more than 20 years. 800-987-9320

The greatest complement you can give us is to refer us to your' friends.

MONDAY ON THE MOUNTAIN 'WOODS EXPECTATIONS RISING April 16, 2012

by Bob Bailey 800-987-9320

Expectations rising for housing market's spring season

The spring home-selling season could be the strongest in years in Arrowhead Woods. . "This spring will be the litmus test for housing demand," says Steven Ricchiuto, chief economist for Mizuho Securities USA.

In Lake Arrowhead, last year was dismal for existing home sales. This year is looking better. Existing home sales for the first three months of 2012 were up 34% over the same time last year. Prices however were down 12.5% from last year. Let’s be realistic. Prices decline, run flat, then slowly rise. Pretty basic. Economists think we are entering the run flat part of a turnaround.

Several home price indexes also show signs that the long decline in prices may be near an end, especially for homes that aren't foreclosures or short sales. Watching bank and short sales is a bummer, depressing -- forget them. This is the picture in Arrowhead Woods.

ARROWHEAD WOODS	Non Distressed	Bank Sales	Short Sales
2011, 12 months 323 sales, $300,000 median	212 sold $348,500	61 sold $194,500	51 sold $300,000
2012 3 months 87 sales, $275,000 median	59 sold $299,000	20 sold $179,500	8 sold $280,000

Prices are "not far from the bottom," says CoreLogic chief economist Mark Fleming. Yet slowing declines — and even a bottoming — are far from rising prices. Stan Humphries, Zillow economist, expects home sales to trend up this year. This spring season "will be the best in four or five years," says economist Paul Dales of Capital Economics.

After the darkness, come the dawn of a new day. CHEERS, Bob and Patsy

Errata: Last issue we reported first quarter 2011 had “0” short sales. It should have said 20 short sales. Sorry.

MONDAY ON THE MOUNTAIN ARROWHEAD WOODS SALES FOR MARCH... April 9, 2012

25 Homes sold in March 2012.

Sales are increasing but a better market requires more listings to outdistance the bank and short sales.

Too large a market share by bank controlled sales, now one third, will pull down prices especially below $500,000, eventually affecting all home values.

1st Quarter; Yr / Yr: for 3 months of 2012 vs 2011.     Sales are up 34%. Prices are down 12.5%.

1st Quarter

2011

2012

Gain/Loss

Current Listings

Homes Sold

64

86

34%

282 Listed

Median Price

$314,000

$275,000

-12.5%

$439,500

Bank Sale

10

20

11

Short Sale

0

8

23

Sold Price Last List Original List Price Str Number Str Name Built Beds Baths View Garage Days to Sell Bank Owned Y/N Short Sale

$149,000 $155,000 $168,000 28637 MANITOBA 1968 3 3 MTN None 234 Y N

149,500 159,000 169,000 1184 NADELHORN DR 1968 3 2    None 181 N N

164,900 164,900 164,900 344 HELIOTROPE 1976 2 1.75    1 50 Y N

167,500 170,000 249,900 420 CUMBERLAND DRIVE 1977 3 3 TR None 120 Y N

203,300 203,300 203,300 798 CROWN DRIVE 1991 4 2.5 TR 2 70 Y N

213,500 228,500 244,500 27904 ST. BERNARD LANE 1978 3 2 PAN None 551 N N

232,500 249,900 249,900 321 EMERALD DRIVE 1997 2 2.5 TR 2 63 N N

242,000 254,500 284,500 943 GRASS VALLEY RD. 1971 2 2 MTN None 296 N N

300,000 319,000 319,000 231 CUMBERLAND 1990 3 2.5 FOR 2 69 N N

298,000 319,000 319,000 1006 SANDALWOOD 1984 3 2.5 TR 2 39 N N

314,500 324,000 398,000 27640 MATTERHORN 1981 3 3.5 LK None 0 N N

339,000 339,000 399,000 27945 LAKES EDGE 1966 5 4.5 TR 2 175 N Y

300,000 350,000 350,000 843 GRASS VALLEY 1970 3 2.5 FOR 2 65 N N

365,000 378,500 378,500 358 GRIZZLY RD 1980 3 2.5 MTN 2 239 N N

350,000 415,000 429,000 425 GOLF COURSE WAY 1981 3 2 FOR 2 203 N N

425,000 449,000 499,975 1370 ST ANTON DR 2000 4 2.5 DES 2 242 N N

442,000 475,000 475,000 369 GOLF COURSE RD 2004 4 3 GC 3 140 N N

473,900 476,900 499,900 28845 WINNEPEG DR 1985 4 2.5 FOR 2 88 Y N

455,000 499,500 599,950 966 ST. HWY 173 1962 3 4 FOR 2 259 N N

460,000 499,950 529,000 28885 MAMMOTH DRIVE 1966 3 3.5 LK 2 275 N N

565,000 589,000 799,000 27831 PENINSULA DRIVE N 1979 3 3.5 TR 4Plus 669 N N

675,000 599,000 699,000 343 GARDEN 2000 3 2.5 FOR 2 321 N N

695,000 695,000 695,000 1491 LITTLE PONDEROSA 1992 6 6 MTN 4Plus 50 N N

684,500 698,500 848,500 148 JOHN MUIR 1979 4 4 MTN ATT 299 N N

1,975,000 2,275,000 2,475,000 27565 MEADOW COVE CT. 1990 6 5.5 LK 3 184 N N

$425,564 $451,458 $497,873 MARCH 2012 AVERAGES 1981 3 3 2 195

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MONDAY IN ARROWHEAD WOODS REAL ESTATE... April 2, 2012

RESORT LIVING: VACATION HOMES ARE ON AN UPWARD TREND, NOW 69% OF ARROWHEAD WOODS HOMES… a big shift.

In Arrowhead Woods, our premier resort community, we have 7,599 homes, according to the Lake Arrowhead Community Service District count of water meters. Going back a couple decades, I was reporting that from 1990 to 2005, the average vacation Arrowhead Woods home ownership was 65% part time and 35% full time residents. There was not much change even during the 1992 - 1997 real estate recession, just a little wobble.

In 2006 when the ‘bubble’ burst, an exodus of full time owners began. From the first of 2006 to the present, just over 2,000 homes were sold in Arrowhead Woods. Sales during these six years had vacation home buyers at 74% of sales, 26% full time.

The cumulative profile of our ‘Woods’ community in 2012 is 69% vacation owners, 31% full time residents. The change is significant to our community.

MORE VACATION OWNERS, LESS FULL OWNERS. The business community may have fewer shoppers Monday through Friday with fewer full time owners. Restaurants could have more sales with bigger weekend sales from vacation owners. Realtors can hope for more sales as vacation homes turn over at a faster rate than full time home sales. As the Mountain News recently reported, the school system, teachers and facilities, will be further strained by declining enrollment. What are your thoughts?

Remember to shop on top. See you at the Easter Sunrise Service where there is always hope.

CHEERS, Bob and Patsy

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MONDAY IN ARROWHEAD WOODS REAL ESTATE...Mar 26, 2012

HEAVEN SENT - but the devil is in the details.

Economists report the real estate market is turning around. We agree. To get a better picture of the mix of foreclosures, short sales, slow sales and big sales we have broken the Arrowhead Woods market into three segments, of low, mid and highest sale price homes.

We have some interesting findings if we go back to 2000 in search of trends. First, the entry segment of $100,000 to $499,999 is 75% to 85% of all sales in the Woods. It is also contains 20% bank sales and 8% short sales. And, it overwhelms and tilts the database when we call out the median price. If buyers come in larger numbers, grabbing the brass ring of good value, the median price could rise.

Mid range sales, $500,000 to $999,999 is small, only 14% of total sales. The premium range, over $1,000,000 is 10% of sales. These two brackets have suffered with declining sales, but NOT declining prices. This is an exciting find!

As consumer confidence grows, we see potential for a strong market in homes over $500,000. It has already begun for the $1 million plus homes. Buyers may be slow to act and hard to come by, but the two segments have a higher percent of cash and large down payments sparing some from the drama of tight fist'd lenders.

WEAK

Median All Sold

%Change Yr over Yr

$100-$499(000)

%Change   Yr over Yr

2000

420

$215

356

$231

2003

576

$289

34%

499

$285

23%

2005

679

$448

55%

392

$362

27%

2011

324

$301

-33%

246

$274

-24%

Rocket up, now in freefall.

Bank & SS dominate this price bracket

Foreclosures 20%; Short Sales 8%

76% of all sales, steepest decline

Now Listed

265

ask $449

158

ask $332

2012 March

inventory 10 month supply, is ok

6 month inventory is low for a recovery

STRONG

$500-999(000)

%Change    Yr over Yr

$1 mil +(000)

%Change              Yr over Yr

2000

35

$660

16

$1,713

2003

56

$625

-5%

21

$1,682

-2%

2005

211

$679

9%

75

$1,680

0%

2011

45

$677

1%

29

$2,389

42%

Very little price change, no bubble

Virtually no decline, prices up.

14% of all sales, very stable.

10% of sales, prices never fell.

Now Listed

58

ask $670

49

Ask $1950

2012 March

Inventory is good, but over a year

Inventory big, near 2 years, priced ok

This report is the first gathering of critical information for Arrowhead Trends, our four page quarterly publication which will be mailed and on the internet in about a month. We'll have a mountain of new data and strategy to capitalize and form a sales strategy for 2012.

CHEERS, Bob and Patsy
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MONDAY IN ARROWHEAD WOODS REAL ESTATE...                 March 19, 2012

TURNING THE CORNER? Yes...The news media and some economists feel the market is bottoming out. Let’s look at the ups and downs, delighting in more uppers than down.

We appear to be at the first stage of a recovery in Arrowhead Woods, the high value community of mountain real estate. Buyers are the first to recognize this as they cherry pick the non-distressed homes. More homes for sale is likely to bring more buyers -- enjoying more choices.

Step one is when prices stop falling – which is forecast to be this year, roughly 3 - 4% lower. The median price in Arrowhead Woods is matching 2003. Many homeowners still have significant equity in their homes here. It will be decision time for some of these folks, stay or go.

Foreclosures	DOWNER. Huge backlog of bank owned homes on the mountain will hang over our market for 3 + years.
Short Sales	DOWNER. Too much uncertainty and not enough price advantage for buyers. Banks don’t like them. Sellers can’t get out easily.
Consumer Confidence	UPPER. Employment, Stock Market, Attitude,
Mortgage Rates	UPPER. Starting to inch up slowly, but the best in decades and will continue to be low.
Mortgage application	DOWNER. Tough credit scrutiny. Home equity loans are not easily available for vacation home down payments.
Rising Sales	UPPER. Up 40% over last year. Price are now at pre-bubble prices. Buyers are shopping early and smart.
Rising Prices	UPPER. Starting to stabilize. May not rise much for next three years. Up is a matter of time, national economy.
The big players Fannie & Freddie,	UPPER. Could start bulk sales, thousands of homes in blocks sold to investors. Plus would be price stability. Minus is investors buy low, sell high.

If we can help in any way, just give us a call 800-987-9320 or drop an Email.

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